How much will creators earn on BitTube?
In the Airtime article, it is stated that 21% (70% of 30%) of the total block reward is reserved for publishers. At the time of writing, this comes to an available reward pool of roughly 67k coins per day, 93 per 2-minute block or 46.5 per minute. These numbers will decrease year over year as emission slows down.
The earnings distribution is calculated based on each publisher’s airtime share against the grand total airtime per block. This means in any given block, your video could be making more or less depending on overall activity, which is typically random but averages out on higher time frames. Moreover, as adoption grows, increasingly the fixed reward pool has to be shared between more creators. Here, too, early adopters will benefit significantly.
Let us first consider the average case with some back-of-the-envelope calculations. Since earnings depend on the sum total watch time on the platform at any given moment, we need to establish what these numbers look like for BitTube given a reasonable 1% adoption rate. Based on these YouTube statistics, the total watch time (in minutes) per minute gives us a ratio of 1:45k airtime share at 1% adoption. (Another way to think about it: suppose there are 45,000 concurrent viewers at any one time, where just one of them is watching your video). Now, let’s express earnings in something people are familiar with, like TUBE per 1000 views, or TPM (‘TUBE per mille’) for short. With a creators reward pool of 46.5 per minute, assuming 1 view equals 10 minutes of airtime, we arrive at:
Creators earnings = ( 46.5 ÷ 45000 ) × 10 × 1000 ≈ 10 TPM.
In dollar terms, it comes to roughly $1 per 1000 views — this looks quite favorable, seeing as how the price does not reflect any adoption yet. Keep in mind that YouTube is valued at more than $100bn market cap today. At 1% adoption, this should mean a $1bn market cap for TUBE, which is currently hovering around only $5m. Adoption will most likely precede any noticeable increase in price for some time. New users will want to try the platform for a while before buying coins. And that’s OK — our calculations tell us that we are already well situated even up to an incredible 1% of YouTube’s traffic. Besides, BitTube early adopters should be making a lot more than 10 TPM, as illustrated in the following graph:
During the World Cup, we’ve already seen streams get up to 100k concurrent viewers, resulting in over 1 million unique page views per day. Given the right content and circumstances, it is not outlandish to assume this kind of numbers even at this early stage.
Secondly, let us consider two extremes. Suppose your video goes viral and it is the only one getting any attention on the platform. In that case, it will be earning the lion’s share of the reward pool. Conversely, if in the same period there are other videos getting equal attention from different viewers, then your reward can be much lower.
This is not a bad thing, though — just hear us out. The equitable distribution of rewards per block also means the following. In case your video goes viral during peak hours and earnings are less favorable, it is still true that your (demonstrably popular) video should be making comparatively more during more moderate platform activity, even if those late-stage views account for a minority of its total view count.
Furthermore — and this is an important point — this system incentivizes every publisher to optimize their airtime exposure by essentially doing time slot arbitrage. Many videos get the vast majority of their views in the first 24–48 hours after they are published. Since platform-wide airtime statistics will be publicly available for data analytics, everyone gets to strategically publish (and promote) their videos at the most opportune times. This mechanic should ensure that there is never a dull moment on BitTube, because low platform activity means creators are leaving money on the table.